Glacier Retreat and Groundwater Recharge in Central Chile: Analysis to Inform Decision-Making for Sustainable Water Resources Management

Glaciers worldwide are in retreat, and their meltwater can modulate mountain aquifers. We examined whether mass loss of the Juncal Norte Glacier (central Chile) has affected groundwater storage in the Juncal River basin between 1990 and 2022. Recession-curve modeling of daily streamflow shows no statistically significant trend in basin-scale groundwater reserves (τ = 0.06, p > 0.05). In contrast, glacier volume declined significantly (−3.8 hm3/yr, p < 0.05), and precipitation at the nearby Riecillos station fell sharply during the 2008–2017 megadrought (p < 0.05) but exhibited no significant change beforehand. Given the simultaneous decreases in meteoric inputs (rain + snow) and glacier mass, one would expect groundwater storage to decline; its observed stability therefore suggests that enhanced glacier-melt recharge may be temporarily offsetting drier conditions. Isotopic evidence from comparable Andean catchments supports such glacio-groundwater coupling, although time lags of months to years complicate detection with recession models alone. Hence, while our results do not yet demonstrate a direct glacier–groundwater link, they are consistent with the hypothesis that ongoing ice loss is buffering aquifer storage. Longer records and tracer studies are required to verify this mechanism and to inform sustainable water resources planning.