Climate Change Impact Study on Flood Risk in Lower West Rapti River Basin Using Mri-Agcm Outputs

The study focused on future agriculture and households' damages induced by extreme flood events projected by IPCC SRES A1B scenario by MRI-AGCM 3.2s. An integrated modelling approach was executed to achieve the target by utilizing high resolution 20 km MRI-AGCM 3.2s results with two watershed hydrological models. Bias corrected MRI-AGCM 3.2s precipitation outputs for Present-SPAC , and Future-SFAC (2075-2099) were used to generate river runoff by PDHM (Parameter Distributed Hydrological model). A frequency analysis was carried out to obtain 50 years return period river runoffs for the Lower West River Basin (LWRB) using simulated river runoffs by PDHM model. Flood inundation simulations for 50 years return period events of Present and Future were carried out by Rainfall, Runoff and Inundation model -RRI followed by a flood damage assessment for the flood hazards.