Estimating the local effect of weather on field crop production with unobserved producer behavior: a bioeconomic modeling framework

The role of weather in crop production at field is central to understanding the impact of climate change on agriculture and its implications for food security. In this study, we developed a bioeconomic modeling framework for estimating the field effect of weather on crop production at the regional scale with unobserved producer behavior. We took a systematic perspective for model development, explicitly considering crop production as a coupled human–nature system dominated by management adapted to local environmental and economic conditions. We drew on economics to characterize producer management behavior and crop yield consistent with the process of field production. We integrated scientific findings on plant growth and production economics to parameterize the yield function of crop that can be statistically estimated with observed data. An empirical application of our approach to spring wheat production found spatially heterogeneous effect of weather and climate change impact. Our modeling approach can be applied to different crops or regions to develop locally specific understandings of the management adjusted, production effect of weather and climate change impact, with implications on cropping system resilience and for adaptation.