Tendencias de precipitación y cambio climático en la cuenca del Río Conchos, México

The Conchos River basin, located on the border of the United States and Mexico, is the main contributor to comply with the Water Distribution Treaty between the two countries. In the last decades, there have been difficulties in delivering the volumes committed at the Treaty, and it has been argued that the cause is water management. In this text, to verify the possibility of dealing with natural causes, the historical variability of precipitation in the basin is reviewed and an analysis of recent precipitation trends is performed using the Standardized Precipitation Index on representative meteorological stations. It is concluded that in the basin there is a clear trend towards greater dryness and reduced climate variability, and the implications for the management of this transboundary basin are highlighted. Forecasts of various climate change scenarios are reviewed and found to be consistent with the trends observed in the analysis of precipitation.