Published 2019
2 views Journal article Open Access Open Access

Modeling water quality in the Anthropocene: directions for the next-generation aquatic ecosystem models

Creators

  • 1. Wageningen University and Research Centre
  • 2. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
  • 3. Utrecht University
  • 4. Witteveen+Bos Consulting Engineers, Ecology group, P.O. Box 233, 7400 AE Deventer, The Netherlands
  • 5. University of Würzburg
  • 6. United States Geological Survey
  • 7. Stockholm Resilience Centre
  • 8. Stockholm University
  • 9. City University of New York
  • 10. Department of Aquatic Ecology, Netherlands Institute for Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), P.O. Box 50, 6700 AB Wageningen, The Netherlands
  • 11. Finnish Environment Institute
  • 12. Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ
  • 13. Deltares, Department of Ecology and Water Quality, P.O. Box 177, 2600 MH Delft, The Netherlands
  • 14. Stanford University
  • 15. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
  • 16. Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute for Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), P.O. Box 50, 6700 AB Wageningen, The Netherlands
  • 17. UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education

Description

"Everything changes and nothing stands still" (Heraclitus). Here we review three major improvements to freshwater aquatic ecosystem models — and ecological models in general — as water quality scenario analysis tools towards a sustainable future. To tackle the rapid and deeply connected dynamics characteristic of the Anthropocene, we argue for the inclusion of eco-evolutionary, novel ecosystem and social-ecological dynamics. These dynamics arise from adaptive responses in organisms and ecosystems to global environmental change and act at different integration levels and different time scales. We provide reasons and means to incorporate each improvement into aquatic ecosystem models. Throughout this study we refer to Lake Victoria as a microcosm of the evolving novel social-ecological systems of the Anthropocene. The Lake Victoria case clearly shows how interlinked eco-evolutionary, novel ecosystem and social-ecological dynamics are, and demonstrates the need for transdisciplinary research approaches towards global sustainability.
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