Rijnland case study: hindcast experiment for anticipatory water‐system control

Flooding problems in low-lying controlled water systems are being addressed. A methodology is described in which flood-control strategies based on ensemble precipitation forecasts and hydrological models are developed using simulation and verification analysis. The methodology is applied to the Rijnland channelled storage basin in the Netherlands. A control strategy for lowering the water levels in anticipation of heavy rainfall, and based on 3-day ensemble water level forecasts, is demonstrated for a heavy rain event in September 1998. The results show that the measured peak is successfully reduced and false alarms do not occur before the precipitation event. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society