Published March 30, 2011
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Future hydrology and climate in the River Nile basin: a review

Creators

  • 1. UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education
  • 2. Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation
  • 3. Nile Basin Initiative Water Resources Management Project , Cairo, Egypt
  • 4. Makerere University
  • 5. University of Dar es Salaam
  • 6. University of Nairobi
  • 7. Addis Ababa University

Description

Abstract A critical discussion of recent studies that analysed the effects of climate change on the water resources of the River Nile Basin (RNB) is presented. First, current water-related issues on the RNB showing the particular vulnerability to environmental changes of this large territory are described. Second, observed trends in hydrological data (such as temperature, precipitation, river discharge) as described in the recent literature are presented. Third, recent modelling exercises to quantify the effects of climate changes on the RNB are critically analysed. The many sources of uncertainty affecting the entire modelling chain, including climate modelling, spatial and temporal downscaling, hydrological modelling and impact assessment are also discussed. In particular, two contrasting issues are discussed: the need to better recognize and characterize the uncertainty of climate change impacts on the hydrology of the RNB, and the necessity to effectively support decision-makers and propose suitable a...
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